基于VMD和改进TCN的短期光伏发电功率预测

光伏发电功率存在波动性,且光伏出力易受各种气象特征影响,传统TCN网络容易过度强化空间特性而弱化个体特性。针对上述问题,文中提出一种基于VMD和改进TCN的短期光伏发电功率预测模型。通过VMD将原始光伏发电功率时间序列分解为若干不同频率的模态分量,将各个模态分量以及相对应的气象数据输入至改进TCN网络进行建模学习。利用中心频率法确定VMD的最优分解模态分解个数。在传统TCN预测模型的基础上,使用DropBlock正则化取代Dropout正则化以达到抑制卷积层中信息协同的效果,并引入注意力机制自主挖掘并突出关键气象输入特征的影响,量化各气象因素对光伏发电的影响,从而提高预测精度。以江苏省某光伏电站真实数据为例进行仿真实验,结果表明所提预测方法的RMSE为0.62 MW,MAPE为2.03%。     

Efficient utilization of waste heat from molten carbonate fuel cell in parabolic trough power plant for electricity and hydrogen coproduction

Direct steam generating parabolic trough power plant is an important technology to match future electric energy demand. One of the problems related to its emergence is energy storage. Solar-to-hydrogen is a promising technology for solar energy storage. Electrolysis is among the most processes of hydrogen production recently investigated. High temperature steam electrolysis is a clean process to efficiently produce hydrogen. In this paper, steam electrolysis process using solar energy is used to produce hydrogen. A heat recovery steam generator generates high temperature steam thanks to the molten carbonate fuel cell's waste heat. The analytical study investigates the energy efficiency of solar power plant, molten carbonate fuel cell and electrolyser. The impact of waste heat utilization on electricity and hydrogen generation is analysed. The results of calculations done with MATLAB software show that fuel cell produces 7.73 MWth of thermal energy at design conditions. 73.37 tonnes of hydrogen and 14.26 GWh of electricity are yearly produced. The annual energy efficiency of electrolyser is 70% while the annual mean electric efficiency of solar power plant is 18.30%.The proposed configuration based on the yearly electricity production and hydrogen generation has presented a good performance.     

Systematic analysis and multi-objective optimization of an integrated power and freshwater production cycle

This study represents the results of the analysis and optimization of an integrated system for cogenerating electricity and freshwater. This setup consists of a Solid Oxide Fuel cell (SOFC) for producing electricity. Unburned fuel of the SOFC is burned in the afterburner to increase the temperature of the SOFC's outlet gasses and operate a Gas turbine (GT) to produce additional power and operate the air compressor. At the bottom of this cycle, a combined setup of a Multi-Effect Desalination (MED) and Reverse Osmosis (RO) is considered to produce freshwater from the unused heat capacity of the GT's exhaust gasses. Also, a Stirling engine is used in the fuel supply line to increase the fuel's temperature. Using LNG and the Stirling engine will replace the fuel compressor with a pump which increases the system performance and eliminates the need for the expansion valve. To study the system performance a mathematical model is developed in Engineering Equation Solver (EES) program. Then, the system's simulated data from the EES has been sent to MATLAB to promote the best operating condition based on the optimization criteria. An energetic, exergetic, economic, and environmental analysis has been performed and a Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm (NSGA-II) is used to achieve the goal. The two-objective optimization is performed to maximize the exergetic efficiency of the proposed system while minimizing the system's total cost of production. This cost is a weighted distribution of the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) and Levelized Cost of freshwater (LCOW). The results showed that the exergetic and energetic efficiencies of the system can reach 73.5% and 69.06% at the optimum point. The total electricity production of the system is 99 MW. The production cost is 11.71 Cents/kWh, of which 1.04 Cents/kWh is emission-related and environmental taxes. The freshwater production rate is 42.44 kg/s which costs 4.38 USD/m³.     

基于虚拟元-有限元耦合的隧道内道床干缩裂缝细观研究

为解释道床与盾构隧道管片产生脱空的现象，研究新混凝土在浇筑后由干燥收缩产生的裂缝机理。基于虚拟元推导任意多边形骨料的刚度矩阵格式，利用UEL子程序实现有限元与虚拟元的耦合计算，纯弯梁数值试验结果表明耦合法较有限元法计算效率明显提升，且具有较好的稳定性。在此基础上，建立细观尺度下新老混凝土的干缩数值模型，并通过圆盘干缩模型验证了模型参数。研究骨料和砂浆的应力分布、内部湿度与裂缝发展的对应关系以及新老混凝土表面和界面的应力发展。结果表明：①收缩过程中，骨料主要承受压应力作用，砂浆沿骨料边界的切线方向受骨料约束作用易形成收缩裂缝，在新混凝土表面首先出现大量微小裂缝，随后界面两端发生剥离; ②受表面下骨料的约束作用，新混凝土表面拉应力呈现“驼峰”分布。开裂后表面被划分为多个收缩区，收缩区边界受拉应力，内部受压应力；③界面的拉伸和剪切应力由两侧开始增加，并且随着界面剥离的增加不断内移。在界面内部未剥离区域内存在由界面附近骨料约束导致的局部压应力和剪切应力增大。     

基于跨临界CO2热泵的茶叶生产能源系统负荷削减潜力

乡村产业中的化石能源设备逐渐被电能技术替代，引起了乡村负荷波动增大、部分时段产生集中高负荷的问题。为了解决以上问题，将低品位清洁能源应用至乡村的茶叶生产中，针对烘茶全过程的工艺要求提出了跨临界CO₂热泵烘茶技术；并以某茶叶生产乡村为对象，对其代表台区的全年日用电量及产茶日负荷进行了分析，得出采用CO₂热泵烘茶后其负荷得到大幅度削减，整体可降低至原负荷的39.6%~46.8%，峰值负荷与平时负荷的比值由原本的13.6降至5.4~6.2。跨临界CO₂热泵应用至农产品生产中可有效缓解乡村供电压力。     

Performance assessment of a direct steam solar power plant with hydrogen energy storage: An exergoeconomic study

Power generation and its storage using solar energy and hydrogen energy systems is a promising approach to overcome serious challenges associated with fossil fuel-based power plants. In this study, an exergoeconomic model is developed to analyze a direct steam solar tower-hydrogen gas turbine power plant under different operating conditions. An on-grid solar power plant integrated with a hydrogen storage system composed of an electrolyser, hydrogen gas turbine and fuel cell is considered. When solar energy is not available, electrical power is generated by the gas turbine and the fuel cell utilizing the hydrogen produced by the electrolyser. The effects of different working parameters on the cycle performance during charging and discharging processes are investigated using thermodynamic analysis. The results indicate that increasing the solar irradiation by 36%, leads to 13% increase in the exergy efficiency of the cycle. Moreover, the mass flow rate of the heat transfer fluid in solar system has a considerable effect on the exergy cost of output power. Solar tower has the highest exergy destruction and capital investment cost. The highest exergoeconomic factor for the integrated cycle is 60.94%. The steam turbine and PEM electrolyser have the highest share of exergoeconomic factor i.e., 80.4% and 50%, respectively.     

Assessment of offshore liquid hydrogen production from wind power for ship refueling

Green hydrogen from electrolysis has become the most attractive energy carrier for making the transition from fossil fuels to carbon-free energy sources possible. Especially in the naval sector, hydrogen has the potential to address environmental targets due to the lack of low-carbon fuel options. This study aims at investigating an offshore liquefied green hydrogen production plant for ship refueling. The plant comprises a wind farm for renewable electricity generation, an electrolyzer stack for hydrogen production, a water treatment unit for demineralized water production, and a hydrogen liquefaction plant for hydrogen storage and distribution to ships. A pre-feasibility study is addressed to find the optimal capacities of the plant that minimize the payback time. The model results show that the electrolyzer capacity shall be set equal to a value between 80% and 90% of the wind farm capacity to achieve the minimum payback times. Additionally, the wind farm capacity shall be higher than about 150 MW to limit the payback time to values lower than 11 years for a fixed hydrogen price of 6 €/kg. The Levelized Cost of Hydrogen results to be below 4 €/kg for a wide range of plant capacities for a lifetime of the plant of 25 years. Thus, the model shows that this plant is economically feasible and can be reproduced similarly for different locations by rescaling the different selected technologies. In this way, the naval sector can be decarbonized thanks to a new infrastructure for the production and refueling of liquified green hydrogen directly provided on the sea.     

IRS辅助的SWIPT系统中基于能效优先的波束成形设计与优化

以智能反射面(intelligent reflecting surface,IRS)辅助的无线携能通信(simultaneous wireless information and power transfer,SWIPT)系统为背景,研究了该系统中基于能效优先的多天线发送端有源波束成形与IRS无源波束成形联合设计与优化方法。以最大化接收端的最小能效为优化目标,构造在发送端功率、接收端能量阈值、IRS相移等多约束下的非线性优化问题,用交替方向乘子法(alternating direction method of multipliers,ADMM)求解。采用Dinkelbach算法转化目标函数,通过奇异值分解(singular value decomposition,SVD)和半定松弛(semi-definite relaxation,SDR)得到发送端有源波束成形向量。采用SDR得到IRS相移矩阵与反射波束成形向量。结果表明,该系统显著降低了系统能量收集(energy harvesting,EH)接收端的能量阈值。当系统总电路功耗为?15 dBm时,所提方案的用户能效为300 KB/J。当IRS反射阵源数与发送天线数均为最大值时,系统可达最大能效。